Submitted to Fresno Bee, not published
We see statements that scientists
in the 1970s predicted Earth would cool, so we should not trust scientists
today who say Earth will continue warming.
Yes, some scientists did predict
cooling due to industrial aerosols reflecting incoming light. But this was not a consensus. The National Academy of Scientists said “We
do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine … It does
not seem possible to predict climate.”
Even in the 1970s, six times as
many science papers predicted warming as cooling.
Today we have many more and better
weather satellites, vastly greater computer modeling power, and 40 more years
of research.
Now NAS says we have “strong
evidence that significant global warming is occurring... It is likely that most
of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities... The
scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify
nations taking prompt action.”
The aerosol scientists were not
wrong. Aerosols do reflect some sun
rays. Models using increasing greenhouse
gases predict too much warming if they ignore aerosols.
Professional climate deniers criticize these incomplete models for
inaccuracy, without mentioning the aerosol correction. That is deliberate deception.
Devin Carroll
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